Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -650 STAN +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +15 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -16.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -12.7 (+2.3) | 149.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -14.5 (+0.5) | 150.6 (+0.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -13.8 (+1.2) | 152.0 (-1.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -14.6 (+0.4) | 150.9 (+0.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PITT 64 – 63 STAN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | STAN 75 – 67 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 17-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#18) | 5.5 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#12) | 1.19 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#15) | 1.08 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#11) | 0.555 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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