Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -218 PITT +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -3.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -4.2 (-5.2) | 137.4 (-10.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -4.5 (-5.5) | 138.5 (-11.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -4.0 (-5.0) | 139.2 (-12.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -3.6 (-4.6) | 137.4 (-10.4) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | STAN 75 – 67 PITT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | PITT 83 – 68 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#61) | 6.1 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#49) | 0.57 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#60) | 0.84 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#47) | 0.504 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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