Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTU -142 ACU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -6.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -3.7 (+0.3) | 135.7 (+30.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -4.9 (-0.9) | 137.3 (+28.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -4.7 (-0.7) | 137.3 (+28.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -5.2 (-1.2) | 136.2 (+29.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTU 80 – 74 ACU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTU 76 – 70 ACU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UTU 79 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ACU 80 – 72 UTU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | ACU 86 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#195) | -5.0 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#114) | -0.35 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#124) | -0.43 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#112) | 0.487 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 39.0% |
Game Analysis
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