Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UTU -125 ACU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -3.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -2.1 (+3.9) | 137.3 (+16.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -3.6 (+2.4) | 140.4 (+13.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -3.6 (+2.4) | 141.6 (+12.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -2.9 (+3.1) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTU 85 – 81 ACU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTU 76 – 70 ACU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UTU 79 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ACU 80 – 72 UTU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | ACU 86 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#201) | -5.6 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#132) | -0.44 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#137) | -0.51 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#134) | 0.479 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 38.4% |
Game Analysis
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