Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UTU -135 ACU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +14 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UTU -1.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -0.1 (-14.1) | 136.1 (+21.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -0.5 (-14.5) | 137.4 (+20.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -0.4 (-14.4) | 137.8 (+20.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -0.4 (-14.4) | 137.3 (+20.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTU 80 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTU 85 – 81 ACU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTU 76 – 70 ACU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UTU 79 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ACU 80 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-26 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 8-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 0-16 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#297) | -6.8 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#314) | -1.08 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#302) | -0.94 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#324) | 0.446 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 38.4% |
Game Analysis
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