Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -300 UTU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -7.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -5.7 (+2.3) | 140.5 (+11.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -6.6 (+1.4) | 141.6 (+10.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -6.7 (+1.3) | 142.8 (+9.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -6.3 (+1.7) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTU 80 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTU 85 – 81 ACU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTU 76 – 70 ACU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UTU 79 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | ACU 86 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 7-26 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 2-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#236) | -8.2 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#231) | -1.90 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#202) | -2.03 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#240) | 0.406 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.1% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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