Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -305 STET +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +4 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -5.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -3.8 (+0.2) | 139.2 (+34.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -4.4 (-0.4) | 141.0 (+33.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -3.8 (+0.2) | 136.9 (+37.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -3.9 (+0.1) | 139.7 (+34.3) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
| Feb 29, 2024 | STET 86 – 73 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#303) | -12.2 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#309) | -1.66 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#300) | -2.01 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#300) | 0.419 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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