Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | JAX +110 STET +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +13 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | STET -1.7 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -2.1 (-10.9) | 141.2 (+17.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -1.1 (-11.9) | 140.5 (+18.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -2.0 (-11.0) | 138.6 (+20.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -1.2 (-11.8) | 139.9 (+19.1) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#301) | -2.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#262) | 0.07 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#260) | -0.29 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#262) | 0.513 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.