Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | STET +136 JAX -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -0.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -0.5 (+5.5) | 141.2 (-12.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -1.6 (+6.6) | 141.9 (-12.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -0.2 (+4.8) | 140.4 (-11.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STET -0.0 (+5.0) | 141.4 (-12.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
| Feb 29, 2024 | STET 86 – 73 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#336) | -9.4 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#314) | -1.41 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#308) | -1.92 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#326) | 0.452 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.