Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | STET +340 JAX -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -10.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -8.4 (-0.6) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -8.2 (-0.8) | 144.4 (-5.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -8.9 (-0.1) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -7.8 (-1.2) | 147.4 (-8.4) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
| Feb 29, 2024 | STET 86 – 73 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#350) | -0.4 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#337) | 0.12 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.99 (#343) | 0.40 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#333) | 0.508 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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