Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -1400 STET +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -16.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -11.3 (-4.3) | 145.1 (+5.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -12.4 (-5.4) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -12.3 (-5.3) | 144.2 (+6.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -13.1 (-6.1) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
| Feb 29, 2024 | STET 86 – 73 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#182) | -14.7 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#172) | -2.43 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#160) | -3.13 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#161) | 0.395 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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