Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | STET -250 JAX +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STET win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +1 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | STET -7.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+34.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -6.2 (-5.2) | 140.4 (+34.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STET -5.6 (-4.6) | 142.3 (+32.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STET -5.5 (-4.5) | 140.7 (+34.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STET -5.3 (-4.3) | 141.4 (+33.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Feb 29, 2024 | STET 86 – 73 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#212) | -7.4 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#156) | -0.75 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#183) | -0.94 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#135) | 0.465 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STET | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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