Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | PV -192 JKST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | PV -7.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -4.3 (+4.7) | 156.2 (+4.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -3.4 (+5.6) | 159.8 (+1.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -4.1 (+4.9) | 154.7 (+6.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -4.0 (+5.0) | 157.0 (+4.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | JKST 82 – 78 PV |
| Mar 4, 2025 | JKST 88 – 74 PV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | JKST 79 – 70 PV |
| Mar 5, 2024 | JKST 79 – 74 PV |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PV 71 – 62 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 83.8 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#330) | -16.8 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#335) | -1.47 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#329) | -2.10 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#340) | 0.449 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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