Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -1450 CSUB +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -18.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -17.6 (-5.6) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -15.0 (-3.0) | 143.3 (+12.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -15.3 (-3.3) | 143.0 (+13.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -15.6 (-3.6) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 62 CSUB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCSD 73 – 54 CSUB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCSD 81 – 60 CSUB |
| Mar 1, 2024 | CSUB 70 – 57 UCSD |
| Dec 29, 2023 | UCSD 76 – 64 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 2-18 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-11 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | -12.1 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#111) | -1.69 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#113) | -2.45 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#111) | 0.399 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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