Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -333 CSUB +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -12.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -7.8 (+4.2) | 134.3 (+5.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -8.2 (+3.8) | 136.8 (+3.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -8.5 (+3.5) | 133.9 (+6.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -8.9 (+3.1) | 134.3 (+5.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSD 84 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 62 CSUB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCSD 73 – 54 CSUB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCSD 81 – 60 CSUB |
| Mar 1, 2024 | CSUB 70 – 57 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | -6.3 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#251) | -1.15 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#228) | -1.55 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#266) | 0.412 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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