Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -700 CSUB +480 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -14.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -12.0 (+9.0) | 138.0 (+3.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -9.9 (+11.1) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -11.3 (+9.7) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -11.6 (+9.4) | 138.9 (+2.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSD 84 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 62 CSUB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCSD 73 – 54 CSUB |
| Mar 1, 2024 | CSUB 70 – 57 UCSD |
| Dec 29, 2023 | UCSD 76 – 64 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 12-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#72) | -1.4 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#71) | -0.39 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#92) | -0.33 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#64) | 0.479 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 40.0% |
Game Analysis
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