Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -166 TNST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -3.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.4 (-10.4) | 148.8 (+1.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -3.2 (-11.2) | 148.9 (+1.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -2.3 (-10.3) | 146.6 (+3.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -2.4 (-10.4) | 148.4 (+1.6) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
| Mar 3, 2023 | SEMO 91 – 83 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#223) | -3.8 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#214) | -0.19 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#232) | -0.65 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#143) | 0.529 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.