Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -200 TNST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +2 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -6.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -4.5 (-2.5) | 148.7 (+27.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -3.3 (-1.3) | 150.4 (+25.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -4.8 (-2.8) | 147.6 (+28.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -4.3 (-2.3) | 149.7 (+26.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
| Mar 3, 2023 | SEMO 91 – 83 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#231) | -6.9 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#254) | -1.47 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#254) | -1.96 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#226) | 0.428 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.