Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | TNST +100 SEMO -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +8 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -1.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -0.0 (-8.0) | 158.6 (+15.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -0.6 (-7.4) | 155.9 (+18.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -0.3 (-7.7) | 157.6 (+16.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -0.3 (-7.7) | 157.6 (+16.4) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#279) | -5.1 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#268) | -0.88 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#286) | -1.22 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#282) | 0.486 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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