Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO +180 TNST -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -7.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -6.9 (+3.9) | 138.0 (+13.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -6.1 (+3.1) | 136.9 (+14.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -6.5 (+3.5) | 135.9 (+15.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -6.5 (+3.5) | 135.7 (+15.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Mar 3, 2023 | SEMO 91 – 83 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -15.2 (#353) | -4.6 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#346) | -0.61 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#346) | -0.78 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#343) | 0.478 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.