Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -145 SEMO +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -2.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.9 (+0.9) | 151.5 (-19.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -1.4 (-0.6) | 152.0 (-20.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -3.9 (+1.9) | 147.1 (-15.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -3.6 (+1.6) | 149.4 (-17.4) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
| Mar 3, 2023 | SEMO 91 – 83 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#334) | -3.8 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#352) | -0.88 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.80 (#347) | -0.96 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.324 (#363) | 0.453 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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