Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TNST +114 SEMO -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +9 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -4.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -2.8 (-11.8) | 148.2 (+24.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -2.8 (-11.8) | 144.6 (+28.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.4 (-12.4) | 144.9 (+28.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.6 (-12.6) | 145.0 (+28.0) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
| Mar 3, 2023 | SEMO 91 – 83 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#208) | -3.1 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#112) | -0.99 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#145) | -1.20 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#99) | 0.448 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.1% | 42.2% |
Game Analysis
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