Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -198 UNCG +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +5 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -4.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -4.7 (-9.7) | 150.7 (+14.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -3.7 (-8.7) | 150.9 (+14.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -3.9 (-8.9) | 152.3 (+12.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -4.3 (-9.3) | 151.7 (+13.3) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 75 UTC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTC 89 – 61 UNCG |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNCG 70 – 54 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#290) | -9.8 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#289) | -1.28 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#288) | -1.75 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#281) | 0.450 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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