Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -170 UNCG +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -1.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.6 (-2.4) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.2 (-1.8) | 141.9 (+11.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -0.1 (-2.9) | 140.8 (+12.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.9 (-2.1) | 142.8 (+10.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 80 UTC |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTC 89 – 61 UNCG |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNCG 70 – 54 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 12-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#202) | 3.0 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#180) | 0.42 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#182) | 0.42 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#191) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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