Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -175 UTC +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +28 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -4.2 (-32.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -3.4 (-31.4) | 148.2 (+1.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.4 (-30.4) | 146.9 (+3.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.1 (-30.1) | 148.4 (+1.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -3.0 (-31.0) | 147.8 (+2.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 80 UTC |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 75 UTC |
| Jan 14, 2024 | UNCG 70 – 54 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | 0.8 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#98) | 0.66 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#109) | 0.59 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#104) | 0.517 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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