Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -115 UNCG -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +16 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -3.1 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.6 (-16.6) | 142.1 (-18.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -2.0 (-18.0) | 139.2 (-15.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -1.8 (-17.8) | 141.3 (-17.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -1.5 (-17.5) | 142.7 (-18.7) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 80 UTC |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 75 UTC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTC 89 – 61 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#173) | 0.7 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#200) | 0.75 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#212) | 0.93 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#230) | 0.550 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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