Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +110 HAW -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -2.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -0.8 (-3.2) | 142.8 (+7.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -1.5 (-2.5) | 144.6 (+5.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.7 (-3.3) | 146.6 (+3.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -1.5 (-2.5) | 144.5 (+5.5) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCD 75 – 63 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#175) | 4.7 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#144) | 0.67 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#128) | 0.63 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#152) | 0.514 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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