We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Big West Conference · University Credit Union Center · February 27, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread HAW -1.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money UCD +110 / HAW -130
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCD win
Actual HAW +4 150 Lost
Massey HAW -2.4 (-1.6)
Massey Totals 147.1 (+2.9)
Bradley-Terry 52%
Weighted B-T 60%
Baseline Plus ML HAW -0.7 (-3.3) 146.6 (+3.4) 50%
Model 4 ML HAW -1.5 (-2.5) 144.6 (+5.4) 57%
Model 3 ML HAW -0.8 (-3.2) 142.8 (+7.2) 49%
Baseline ML HAW -1.5 (-2.5) 144.5 (+5.5) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 5, 2025 HAW 7569 UCD
Mar 2, 2025 HAW 7870 UCD
Jan 24, 2025 UCD 6866 HAW
Mar 16, 2024 UCD 6865 HAW
Mar 1, 2024 UCD 7563 HAW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCD HAW
Overall 19-14 24-9
Conference 11-9 14-6
Home 12-4 16-3
Away 6-9 6-5
Neutral 1-1 2-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.1 78.7
Avg Pts Against 76.0 71.2
Massey -0.6 (#175) 4.7 (#103)
Bradley-Terry 0.26 (#144) 0.67 (#104)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.45 (#128) 0.63 (#118)
RPI 0.512 (#152) 0.514 (#145)
Shooting & Four Factors UCD HAW
FG% 45.0% 45.5%
3PT% 35.5% 31.8%
REB / G 32.4 39.3
OREB / G 8.9 11.1
AST / TO 1.23 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 51.7%
TOV% 17.9% 19.3%
ORB% 26.6% 31.9%
FT Rate 31.0% 31.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 45.7%
Opp TOV% 19.7% 17.0%
DRB% 69.2% 74.8%
Opp FT Rate 28.4% 24.5%

Game Analysis

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