Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -145 HAW +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.1 (+1.9) | 133.9 (+0.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -1.2 (+3.2) | 133.4 (+0.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.1 (+2.1) | 133.4 (+0.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.1 (+1.9) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCD 75 – 63 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-7 |
| Away | 7-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#232) | -0.8 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#171) | 0.20 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#196) | 0.10 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#184) | 0.484 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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