Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -9.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -5.8 (+0.2) | 137.7 (+6.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -6.7 (-0.7) | 138.9 (+5.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -5.0 (+1.0) | 138.6 (+5.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -6.5 (-0.5) | 138.2 (+5.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCD 75 – 63 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#95) | 1.7 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#210) | 1.53 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#187) | 2.08 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#243) | 0.585 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 38.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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