Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -140 HAW +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -0.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.1 (+2.9) | 136.5 (-3.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -0.1 (+3.1) | 135.4 (-2.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -0.1 (+3.1) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.1 (+3.1) | 135.5 (-2.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCD 75 – 63 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#170) | 0.2 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#151) | 0.14 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#169) | 0.08 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#170) | 0.492 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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