Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -170 UCD +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -3.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -2.0 (+6.0) | 132.5 (+15.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -3.0 (+5.0) | 132.8 (+15.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -2.6 (+5.4) | 132.2 (+15.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -2.1 (+5.9) | 133.5 (+14.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCD 75 – 63 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#219) | -3.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#192) | 0.05 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#194) | -0.32 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#250) | 0.514 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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