Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -188 HAW +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -1.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.4 (+11.6) | 139.7 (-1.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -0.1 (+11.9) | 138.7 (-0.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.0 (+12.0) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.0 (+12.0) | 140.6 (-2.6) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#188) | 0.3 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#188) | -0.06 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#202) | -0.04 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#204) | 0.480 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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