Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -2100 VMI +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -18.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -15.6 (+3.4) | 150.4 (-9.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -15.7 (+3.3) | 153.2 (-12.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -15.7 (+3.3) | 149.7 (-8.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -16.1 (+2.9) | 151.9 (-10.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SAM 134 – 96 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 83.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#215) | -18.0 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#219) | -3.05 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#214) | -3.70 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#185) | 0.368 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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