Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -5000 VMI +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -17.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -16.5 (-3.5) | 153.8 (-4.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -12.4 (+0.6) | 153.4 (-4.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -14.3 (-1.3) | 154.9 (-5.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -13.8 (-0.8) | 155.0 (-6.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SAM 134 – 96 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#100) | -8.6 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#75) | -2.11 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#82) | -2.17 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#110) | 0.405 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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