Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -8000 VMI +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +38 | 230 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -24.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+67.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -24.1 (+13.9) | 162.7 (+67.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -20.9 (+17.1) | 166.0 (+64.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -20.3 (+17.7) | 157.5 (+72.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -24.7 (+13.3) | 158.0 (+72.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 1-17 |
| Home | 18-0 | 4-10 |
| Away | 8-5 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 84.9 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#83) | -14.3 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#50) | -4.18 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#59) | -5.45 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#73) | 0.350 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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