Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +210 SAM -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +20 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -4.3 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.1 (-15.9) | 149.2 (-13.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -4.9 (-15.1) | 147.3 (-11.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -3.8 (-16.2) | 146.2 (-10.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -4.1 (-15.9) | 149.3 (-13.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SAM 134 – 96 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#344) | -6.3 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#339) | -0.40 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#336) | -0.78 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#331) | 0.473 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 58.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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