Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +475 SAM -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +12 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -9.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -7.2 (-4.8) | 148.6 (+29.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -9.1 (-2.9) | 154.2 (+23.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -7.1 (-4.9) | 148.6 (+29.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -7.5 (-4.5) | 148.7 (+29.3) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SAM 134 – 96 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#300) | 3.8 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#283) | 0.75 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#261) | 0.68 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#276) | 0.548 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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