Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MONM -185 STBK +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -4.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -2.5 (+10.5) | 141.2 (+9.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -3.3 (+9.7) | 140.5 (+10.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -1.9 (+11.1) | 139.2 (+11.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -1.9 (+11.1) | 139.6 (+11.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | MONM 76 – 75 STBK |
| Feb 13, 2025 | MONM 79 – 69 STBK |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MONM 78 – 56 STBK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MONM 84 – 61 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | STBK 72 – 65 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#200) | -3.1 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#208) | -0.05 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#213) | -0.26 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#210) | 0.512 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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