Betting Lines
| Spread | STBK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | STBK -138 MONM +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | STBK -1.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -0.7 (+6.3) | 144.4 (-7.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STBK -1.7 (+5.3) | 145.7 (-8.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -0.8 (+6.2) | 143.7 (-6.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -0.0 (+7.0) | 144.2 (-7.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MONM 82 – 69 STBK |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MONM 76 – 75 STBK |
| Feb 13, 2025 | MONM 79 – 69 STBK |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MONM 78 – 56 STBK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MONM 84 – 61 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#234) | -1.0 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#213) | 0.52 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#177) | 0.61 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#225) | 0.517 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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