Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MONM -138 STBK +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -4.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -2.7 (+20.3) | 147.2 (-2.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -3.0 (+20.0) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -2.9 (+20.1) | 145.6 (-0.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -2.5 (+20.5) | 146.3 (-1.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MONM 82 – 69 STBK |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MONM 76 – 75 STBK |
| Feb 13, 2025 | MONM 79 – 69 STBK |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MONM 78 – 56 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | STBK 72 – 65 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#197) | -2.6 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#158) | -0.10 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#159) | 0.04 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.494 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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