Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | STBK +120 MONM -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -1.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -0.8 (-9.2) | 146.0 (+2.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -0.2 (-9.8) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -0.5 (-9.5) | 144.2 (+3.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -0.5 (-9.5) | 145.6 (+2.4) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MONM 82 – 69 STBK |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MONM 76 – 75 STBK |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MONM 78 – 56 STBK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MONM 84 – 61 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | STBK 72 – 65 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#330) | -6.7 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#321) | -1.21 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#322) | -1.47 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#300) | 0.447 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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