Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MONM -280 STBK +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +22 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -7.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -3.9 (+18.1) | 139.1 (-5.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -4.1 (+17.9) | 138.0 (-4.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -3.7 (+18.3) | 141.3 (-7.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -3.8 (+18.2) | 141.2 (-7.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MONM 82 – 69 STBK |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MONM 76 – 75 STBK |
| Feb 13, 2025 | MONM 79 – 69 STBK |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MONM 84 – 61 STBK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | STBK 72 – 65 MONM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#280) | -10.3 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#307) | -1.14 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#296) | -1.91 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#295) | 0.452 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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