Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU -118 ALST -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +1 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -2.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+34.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -1.1 (-2.1) | 140.9 (+36.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -1.5 (-2.5) | 138.9 (+38.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -2.6 (-3.6) | 140.7 (+36.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -2.3 (-3.3) | 141.8 (+35.2) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
| Jan 16, 2024 | ALST 72 – 55 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#319) | -10.8 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#260) | -1.81 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#267) | -2.19 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#265) | 0.419 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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