Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU +155 ALST -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -7.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -8.2 (+4.2) | 153.3 (-19.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -6.3 (+2.3) | 150.1 (-16.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -7.2 (+3.2) | 150.8 (-16.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -7.4 (+3.4) | 151.4 (-17.4) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
| Jan 16, 2024 | ALST 72 – 55 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-9 | 8-3 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -18.4 (#362) | -7.0 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.12 (#356) | -1.38 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.79 (#354) | -1.65 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.336 (#362) | 0.421 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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