We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Southwestern Athletic Conference · Event Center · January 18, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ALST -3.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money AAMU +155 / ALST -185
Model Predictions
Spread Total AAMU win
Actual ALST +4 134 Lost
Massey ALST -7.6 (+3.6)
Massey Totals 159.5 (-25.5)
Bradley-Terry 26%
Weighted B-T 21%
Efficiency Plus ML ALST -6.3 (+2.3) 150.1 (-16.1) 24%
Baseline Tuned ML ALST -7.2 (+3.2) 150.8 (-16.8) 25%
Baseline ML ALST -7.4 (+3.4) 151.4 (-17.4) 25%
Baseline Plus ML ALST -8.2 (+4.2) 153.3 (-19.3) 24%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 ALST 8988 AAMU
Jan 19, 2026 AAMU 7369 ALST
Mar 1, 2025 ALST 9452 AAMU
Mar 2, 2024 AAMU 5853 ALST
Jan 16, 2024 ALST 7255 AAMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AAMU ALST
Overall 10-22 20-16
Conference 6-12 12-6
Home 8-9 8-3
Away 2-12 6-10
Neutral 0-1 6-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 69.3 71.9
Avg Pts Against 79.9 72.7
Massey -18.4 (#362) -7.0 (#278)
Bradley-Terry -3.12 (#356) -1.38 (#294)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.79 (#354) -1.65 (#286)
RPI 0.336 (#362) 0.421 (#310)
Shooting & Four Factors AAMU ALST
FG% 38.2% 41.2%
3PT% 30.5% 34.0%
REB / G 36.5 33.6
OREB / G 14.7 10.8
AST / TO 0.76 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.2% 48.8%
TOV% 22.7% 13.7%
ORB% 35.6% 27.1%
FT Rate 23.5% 21.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.3% 54.3%
Opp TOV% 20.9% 17.6%
DRB% 62.4% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 32.7% 30.7%

Game Analysis

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