Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -320 AAMU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +42 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -11.0 (+31.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -8.9 (+33.1) | 146.7 (-0.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -8.9 (+33.1) | 147.9 (-1.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -10.3 (+31.7) | 146.3 (-0.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -9.9 (+32.1) | 145.8 (+0.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
| Jan 16, 2024 | ALST 72 – 55 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-9 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#303) | -16.3 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#295) | -2.91 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#316) | -3.43 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#266) | 0.381 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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