Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU +140 ALST -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +5 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -1.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.3 (+5.3) | 137.5 (-26.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -0.6 (+5.6) | 136.4 (-25.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.2 (+6.2) | 137.2 (-26.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.6 (+5.6) | 140.3 (-29.3) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Jan 16, 2024 | ALST 72 – 55 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#341) | -8.6 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#318) | -1.35 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#332) | -1.78 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#321) | 0.460 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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