Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -135 AAMU +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -0.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -0.8 (-3.2) | 143.8 (-1.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.6 (-4.6) | 141.0 (+1.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -0.4 (-3.6) | 140.3 (+1.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -0.4 (-3.6) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
| Jan 16, 2024 | ALST 72 – 55 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-15 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#314) | -10.3 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#317) | -1.20 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#321) | -1.47 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#321) | 0.427 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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