Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -225 AAMU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +17 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -7.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -7.1 (+9.9) | 140.5 (-13.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -5.6 (+11.4) | 136.8 (-9.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -6.6 (+10.4) | 134.8 (-7.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -6.4 (+10.6) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#283) | -14.3 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#235) | -2.26 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#256) | -3.43 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#186) | 0.399 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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