Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA +390 MCN -520 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -7.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -6.6 (+3.6) | 146.0 (-17.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -8.2 (+5.2) | 147.2 (-18.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -5.7 (+2.7) | 145.1 (-16.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -5.9 (+2.9) | 145.3 (-16.3) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MCN 102 – 65 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 19-3 |
| Home | 5-6 | 14-0 |
| Away | 9-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#198) | 8.8 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#192) | 1.49 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#180) | 1.81 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#160) | 0.594 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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