Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA +1800 MCN -6000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +14 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -17.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -14.1 (+0.1) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -15.4 (+1.4) | 141.9 (+0.1) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -14.1 (+0.1) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -13.1 (-0.9) | 142.0 (+0.0) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MCN 102 – 65 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 19-1 |
| Home | 0-11 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-15 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.5 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#342) | 8.4 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#333) | 1.15 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#331) | 1.35 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#314) | 0.572 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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